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John Rentoul, chief political commentator – ‘She never addressed the question: why should we believe it will be different next time?’ The message of that speech was that she will have no truck with Reform . “To those who say ‘unite the right’: we are not uniting with that.” The most powerful section was her denunciation of politicians who suggest that you cannot be Black and British. “We are not like them.
We are different. We are the Conservative Party.” But apart from that, it was a long, rather disconnected lecture setting out the case for a Tory party that believes in living within our means against a Labour Party that wants to tax, spend and borrow. It was mostly delivered in a quiet tone, with occasional flashes of demotic language – “get stuff done”, “stop faffing about”, “badass teachers” – but there was always a fundamental problem with the content, a noise like a troubling drone that run underneath her words.
Her defence of traditional Toryism adapted to the modern age sounded great and she said that the party had learned from its mistakes, but she never addressed the question: her party made a terrible mess of it last time, ending just two years ago – why should we believe it will be different next time? Sean O’Grady, associate editor – ‘The Conservatives don’t need to be loved, just respected’ Yes, Badenoch can win the next general election, and might even achieve an overall majority. There are three years to go and a lot can change.
One big driver is just how volatile the electorate is nowadays. Successive upheavals, notably in the last two general elections, have left traditional party loyalties weakened as never before. As Badenoch says, if Keir Starmer can take a shattered toxified party in 2019 to a landslide win in 2024, so – in principle – can she.
Her rivals are vulnerable. Reform and the Liberal Democrats are stagnating, and there is no good reason why the “Burnham Bounce ” won’t subside and eventually turn into a precipitous decline. A few more tough budgets and broken promises would easily see Labour losing what little momentum it’s recently regained.
People may still not like the Conservatives, or entirely believe their promises, but if the voters decide that they literally cannot afford another Labour government, and they conclude that Reform is simply too extreme and flaky (and that she won’t work with them), then it will have to be Badenoch and the Tories, even if only she looks like she’s up to the job. The Tories could rebuild a lead on the economy, tax, on immigration, defence and welfare. If they can avoid talking about Brexit and appeal to a nation that just cannot face another traumatic EU referendum, then they have a chance.
They don’t need to be loved, just respected. It’s possible. Sonia Sodha, columnist – ‘It feels like Badenoch is leading a party on the up’ That was a typically punchy speech from Kemi Badenoch.
She used it to draw a clear ideological line with Labour, depicting them as a high-tax, big-government party and the Conservatives as low-tax and high-growth. But she also made probably the clearest delineation yet between the Tories and Reform, calling the latter’s politicians out for questioning whether non-white people can be English and declaring they “are not like us”. Is this enough to turn the Conservatives’ electoral fortunes around?
The problem she faces at the moment is that her personal ratings are significantly ahead of the Tory brand: some voters are warming to her the more they see of her, but they still hold the Conservatives responsible for the many failures on their watch. There were certainly enough strong lines in the speech – and the eye-catching pledge to scrap inheritance tax altogether on primary residences – for clips and coverage to cut through to voters to the extent these sort of speeches ever do. Her party will be pleased with that.
But the Conservatives still have a mountain to climb from a very low base. Badenoch, who has been consistently underestimated by her opponents, is as well-placed as anyone to make the attempt. There are risks ahead for both Burnham and Farage, so there may be significant numbers of votes for her to mop up in the coming years.
We are living in such uncertain times the outcome of the next election is anyone’s guess. But a lot has changed from a couple of years ago when people were predicting the Conservative party was existentially doomed, and it feels like Badenoch is leading a party on the up.
Source: The Independent
